GTM Solutions - Bovespa Gains Justified, More To Come.


GTM Solutions have told clients that Brazils recent stock rises are justifiable based on economic growth prospects and record low interest rates, stating that solid fundamentals indicate more gains are in store for the nation.

(I-Newswire) August 13, 2009 -

According to the GTM Solutions release, Lojas Renner SA and Lojas Americanas SA jumped more than 4 percent after Banco Santander SA said retail sales and the job market are showing significant resilience. Furthermore, Cyrela Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos e Participacoes, Brazil's biggest home builder, rose to a two-week high as GTM Solutions said interest rates make stocks dependent on consumer demand attractive. Gains were limited as Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's biggest stock, fell 1.3 percent as oil prices declined. The Bovespa has surged 49 percent this year after falling a record 41 percent in 2008.

GTM Solutions urged investors to take a contrarian stance, stating that most investors in Brazil are cautious because of the recent good run. But, as the company's analysts pointed out; markets don't usually go down when people are cautious; one generally sees a reverse in trends when people are overly optimistic.

Brazilian home builders and retailers have jumped this year on speculation record low interest rates and increased demand for commodity exports will boost growth in Latin America's largest economy. The MSCI Brazil Consumer Discretionary Index has rallied 133 percent in 2009. GTM Solutions advised their investors that this years gains should not lead to a perception that prices are now expensive, due to exaggerated declines witnessed in 2008. They insist that the key to profits in this type of market are projections regarding growth.

The Bovespa's rally this year pushed valuation to 23.20 times reported earnings, the highest in more than five years and more expensive than the average 17.74 price-to-earnings ratio of developing nation stocks tracked by the MSCI Emerging Market index, according to GTM Solutions data.



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August 13, 2009

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